SMStock & Milster

Methodology

How we see the grid.

Transparent framework, documented sources, defensible cadence. Method is the product.

Principles

Five operating principles.

P/01

Source-cite everything

Every claim in every deliverable references the underlying source. Black-box analysis fails IC scrutiny.

P/02

Refresh by data class

Live signal (queue events, market prints) is monitored continuously. Structural data refreshes on the publishing entity's cadence. Cadence is documented per layer.

P/03

Confidence intervals, not point estimates

Time-to-energization and capacity headroom are reported as P50/P90, not single numbers.

P/04

Independence as a design constraint

We do not develop, broker, place capital, or take success fees. Method is the product.

P/05

Adversarial review

Every IC-format deliverable is internally challenged before delivery. We disagree with ourselves first.

Source Architecture

Six data classes. Documented refresh cadence.

L/01

Transmission & Network

  • FERC Form 715 (annual planning data)
  • ISO/RTO public transmission models
  • OASIS / ATC postings
  • TO planning filings

L/02

Generation & Resource

  • EIA-860 (generator inventory)
  • EIA-923 / 930 (operations & balancing)
  • ISO interconnection queues (PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, CAISO, NYISO)
  • FERC Form 1 financials

L/03

Load & Demand

  • EIA-861 (utility sales)
  • ISO peak load forecasts
  • State-level economic & permitting data
  • Hyperscaler & industrial public announcements

L/04

Regulatory & Policy

  • FERC eLibrary docket monitoring
  • State PUC filing trackers
  • IRP repositories
  • Rate case filings & orders

L/05

Spatial & Land

  • County GIS parcel & zoning layers
  • USGS / NHD environmental overlays
  • OpenStreetMap infrastructure
  • Federal land & energy community designations

L/06

Sentiment & Stakeholder

  • Public hearing transcripts
  • Local media monitoring
  • Stakeholder filing patterns
  • Permitting & zoning histories

Confidence Framework

What we tell you, and how confidently.

Structural facts

ISO footprints, queue postings, generator nameplate, filed rates

High — directly cited

Derived metrics

Substation headroom estimates, time-to-energization P50/P90

Medium-High — modeled with documented assumptions

Forward signals

Capacity price trajectory, rule change probability

Medium — directional with explicit ranges

Sentiment / political

Community disposition, opposition probability

Calibrated qualitative — paired with primary source evidence

Scoring Model

The 8-dimension site & market score.

Every market screen and site read is decomposed into eight weighted dimensions. Weights are calibrated to the engagement (hyperscale ≠ utility-scale solar ≠ industrial reshoring). Default weights shown.

D/01

Transmission Headroom

18%

Substation ATC, network upgrade exposure, gen-tie distance, deliverability posture.

D/02

Interconnection Realism

16%

Queue position, cluster study cycle, withdrawal pattern, P50/P90 energization.

D/03

Capacity & Reserve Margin

14%

Forward capacity price trajectory, PRA/BRA exposure, seasonal construct.

D/04

Land & Site Suitability

12%

Parcel assemblage, zoning posture, slope/wetlands, environmental overlays.

D/05

Community & Political

12%

Sentiment signal, opposition history, county commission alignment, precedent.

D/06

Incentive & Tax Geometry

10%

IRA energy community / low-income adders, state credits, PILOT/abatement landscape.

D/07

Tariff & Rate Exposure

10%

Forward rate trajectory, demand-charge architecture, IRP signal, rate case posture.

D/08

Counterparty & Credit

8%

Utility credit posture, PPA offtaker quality, large-load financial security requirements.

Weights tune to mandate. Hyperscale screens overweight D/01–D/03; utility-scale solar overweights D/04–D/06; industrial overweights D/03 and D/07.

Refresh Cadence

What we monitor and how often.

ISO market signals

Continuous

LMP, congestion binding, queue events

Capacity auction prints

Per-auction

BRA, PRA, FCA results within hours

FERC docket monitoring

Daily sweep

Docket-specific watchlists per engagement

Generator inventory (EIA-860)

Annual + monthly preliminary

Validated against ISO/utility filings

Utility sales (EIA-861)

Annual

Cross-checked vs. FERC Form 1

Operations (EIA-930)

Hourly

Balancing area level monitoring

State PUC filings

Daily watchlist

Rate cases, IRPs, large-load applications

County GIS / parcel

Quarterly + on-engagement

Per-county refresh on diligence trigger

Walk through the methodology with us.

Request Methodology Briefing