Risk Framework
The risk vocabulary institutional capital needs.
Eight risk classes we model, document, and report against — paired with mitigation pathways for each.
Risk Register
R/01
Interconnection Risk
Queue position, study cycle exposure, network upgrade allocation, withdrawal patterns, and time-to-energization realism vs. utility-stated timelines.
R/02
Curtailment Risk
Wind/solar curtailment patterns by zone, transmission constraint binding frequency, and battery hybridization economics to mitigate.
R/03
Basis Risk
Hub-to-node basis differentials, congestion-driven LMP divergence, and PPA settlement structure exposure.
R/04
Political & Community Risk
Local opposition signal mapping, county commission alignment, regulatory disposition, and precedent analysis on adjacent projects.
R/05
Permitting Risk
Realistic permitting velocity by jurisdiction, environmental review exposure, conditional use posture, and litigation precedent.
R/06
Tariff & Rate Risk
Forward rate trajectory, demand-charge architecture, fuel adjustment exposure, IRP signal, and pending rate case posture.
R/07
Capacity & Reserve Margin Risk
Forward capacity price exposure, PRA / BRA trajectory, capacity import constraints, and seasonal construct dynamics.
R/08
Counterparty & Credit Risk
PPA offtaker credit posture, utility creditworthiness, and large load financial security requirements.
Severity × Mitigability
The 4-quadrant risk posture.
Every risk class lands in one of four quadrants. The quadrant — not the headline — drives our recommendation. Mitigable-but-severe risks get a playbook; structural-and-severe risks get a re-think.
Severe / Mitigable
Action zone. Capital is deployable with disciplined mitigation. Most engagements live here.
Interconnection timing, basis exposure, permitting velocity.
Severe / Structural
Re-think zone. Mitigation is uneconomic; the deal architecture itself needs change.
Hostile community posture, statutory prohibitions, jurisdictional impossibility.
Manageable / Mitigable
Routine zone. Standard playbook applies; document and proceed.
Tariff filings, counterparty diligence, standard permitting.
Manageable / Structural
Monitor zone. No action required, but reportable through retainer cycle.
Long-horizon policy drift, slow-moving market structure debates.
Diligence Output
What lands in the IC pack.
- — Risk register with severity, mitigability, and timing
- — Confidence intervals (P50/P90) on key metrics
- — Red-flag memo highlighting structural deal-breakers
- — Mitigation playbook with cost and feasibility tagged
- — Forward monitoring triggers for retained engagements
- — Defensible source citation for IC review
Pressure-test a deal against the framework.
Request Diligence Support